Is Toronto’s condo market facing a repeat of the downturn that defined the 1990s? With new data emerging for September 2025, this question is top of mind for both investors and homeowners. By looking at historical patterns, current lending conditions, and buyer behaviour, we can better understand what the numbers are really telling us.
Looking Back to Look Ahead
The 1990s were marked by overbuilding and a flood of new supply, which pushed prices downward for nearly a decade. Comparing that era to today reveals both similarities and crucial differences. While Toronto has seen a surge of completions in recent years, banks now enforce stricter lending requirements. Developers must sell about 70% of units before breaking ground—far higher than the 50% threshold of the 1980s and 1990s. This change makes the market more resilient, even if challenges remain.
September 2025 Snapshot
Sales of resale condos in September 2025 were down 12% from the previous month and nearly 16% year-over-year. With only 765 sales compared to more than 6,200 active listings, inventory levels now sit at roughly eight and a half months. This ratio reflects a strong buyer’s market, where only one in eight listings are selling.
Yet, average prices ticked up slightly compared to August, suggesting that motivated buyers and sellers are still finding common ground. On average, condos sold for about 98% of their list price, meaning sellers who price appropriately continue to attract offers.
Pre-Construction Challenges
Perhaps the most striking factor is the gap between pre-construction and resale pricing. Pre-construction units are often listed at $1,400–$1,600 per square foot, while comparable resale condos hover closer to $900. This pricing disconnect has cooled demand for new projects, leaving developers with significant inventory and buyers hesitant to commit.
What Buyers and Sellers Should Expect
For buyers, today’s market offers both choice and leverage. With thousands of active listings, many are able to check nearly every box on their wish list within their budget. Sellers, on the other hand, face the challenge of standing out in a crowded field. Those who price realistically and present their properties well are seeing results.
The Road Ahead
Forecasts suggest the market could rebound as early as mid-2026. However, given the volume of new units still coming to completion, it may take longer for balance to return. A more gradual adjustment—closer to the drawn-out decline of the 1990s—remains a real possibility.
In the meantime, Toronto’s condo market is defined by opportunity for buyers and caution for sellers. History does not repeat itself exactly, but understanding its echoes provides a valuable lens for making decisions today.
Looking Back to Look Ahead
The 1990s were marked by overbuilding and a flood of new supply, which pushed prices downward for nearly a decade. Comparing that era to today reveals both similarities and crucial differences. While Toronto has seen a surge of completions in recent years, banks now enforce stricter lending requirements. Developers must sell about 70% of units before breaking ground—far higher than the 50% threshold of the 1980s and 1990s. This change makes the market more resilient, even if challenges remain.
September 2025 Snapshot
Sales of resale condos in September 2025 were down 12% from the previous month and nearly 16% year-over-year. With only 765 sales compared to more than 6,200 active listings, inventory levels now sit at roughly eight and a half months. This ratio reflects a strong buyer’s market, where only one in eight listings are selling.
Yet, average prices ticked up slightly compared to August, suggesting that motivated buyers and sellers are still finding common ground. On average, condos sold for about 98% of their list price, meaning sellers who price appropriately continue to attract offers.
Pre-Construction Challenges
Perhaps the most striking factor is the gap between pre-construction and resale pricing. Pre-construction units are often listed at $1,400–$1,600 per square foot, while comparable resale condos hover closer to $900. This pricing disconnect has cooled demand for new projects, leaving developers with significant inventory and buyers hesitant to commit.
What Buyers and Sellers Should Expect
For buyers, today’s market offers both choice and leverage. With thousands of active listings, many are able to check nearly every box on their wish list within their budget. Sellers, on the other hand, face the challenge of standing out in a crowded field. Those who price realistically and present their properties well are seeing results.
The Road Ahead
Forecasts suggest the market could rebound as early as mid-2026. However, given the volume of new units still coming to completion, it may take longer for balance to return. A more gradual adjustment—closer to the drawn-out decline of the 1990s—remains a real possibility.
In the meantime, Toronto’s condo market is defined by opportunity for buyers and caution for sellers. History does not repeat itself exactly, but understanding its echoes provides a valuable lens for making decisions today.
